Tropical Storm Milton is expected to intensify into a major hurricane within three days as it heads towards Florida’s west coast, which is still recovering from previous storm damage, according to federal meteorologists.
The National Hurricane Center reported that Milton is rapidly developing into a “strong hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards” affecting areas around the Tampa Bay region. The forecast indicates that Milton could achieve hurricane status, characterized by sustained winds of 74 mph, in less than 36 hours, and may reach major hurricane status—a Category 3 storm with winds of at least 111 mph—within 72 hours.
In anticipation of the storm, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 35 counties, including Pinellas County, which is still dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. The declaration warns of potential “life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts” for the west coast starting as early as Tuesday evening and extending into Wednesday.
Milton’s rapid transition from tropical depression to tropical storm over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico poses additional risks for the Southeastern United States. This development follows closely on the heels of Hurricane Helene’s landfall on Florida’s Big Bend region on September 26, which caused significant flooding in parts of Tennessee and North Carolina and resulted in 12 deaths in Pinellas County and 25 statewide.
The storm’s formation is aided by unusually warm Gulf waters, with temperatures recorded at nearly 86 degrees—2 degrees warmer than the surrounding air. Milton is poised to be the fifth hurricane to strike the U.S. mainland in 2024, tying historical records from previous years.
Milton is also notable for its origin in the Bay of Campeche, from which only two storms have historically made landfall in Florida since 1850, with the most recent occurrence dating back to 1867. It marks the sixth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which is witnessing a record number of storms formed between September 24 and October 5.
As of the latest updates, Milton was located 365 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and 860 miles west-southwest of Tampa, generating maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. A tropical storm watch is currently in effect for the northern Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cancun. Hurricane and storm surge watches are anticipated for parts of Florida on Sunday.
Current forecasts suggest that Milton may reach major hurricane status by early Monday morning, approaching the Pinellas County coastline by Wednesday evening. However, uncertainties in forecasting could result in track deviations.
Heavy rainfall is expected ahead of the storm, with areas of Florida likely to see impacts as early as Sunday. Forecasters predict five to eight inches of rain, and localized areas could receive up to a foot, leading to risks of flash flooding. The northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba may also see significant rainfall.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to prepare for the storm. The National Hurricane Center has urged individuals to implement their hurricane preparedness plans, heed local officials’ guidance, and stay updated on the storm’s development. In Pinellas County, sandbags are being made available to residents, while authorities emphasize the importance of having enough food, water, fuel, and cash on hand in preparation for potential impacts.