Tropical Storm Helene intensified into a hurricane on Wednesday, September 25. As it approaches Florida, residents are rushing to complete preparations for a potentially perilous storm surge, strong hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned of a life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of Florida and into the Big Bend region. The Big Bend area could face water levels dramatically elevated—up to 15 feet—when the storm makes landfall late Thursday. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is projected to experience a storm surge of 5 to 8 feet.
Mandatory evacuation orders are in place across various parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including areas from the Panhandle to the Big Bend and Southwest Florida. This includes portions of Hillsborough County, where Tampa is located, specifically for Zone A. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 61 of the 67 counties to facilitate preparations for the storm.
As of the NHC’s Wednesday morning update, maximum sustained winds from Helene have reached at least 70 mph with the potential for increased gusts. The storm is currently moving northwest but is expected to shift to a northern trajectory later in the day. Helene is anticipated to quickly gain strength, potentially reaching Category 3 hurricane status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with peak winds projected at 120 mph.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for areas from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, where damaging winds are anticipated by late Thursday. Residents in these areas are urged to complete storm preparations by early Thursday morning. Additionally, Tropical Storm Warnings are active for the Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas, and the western coast of Florida, stretching from Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay.
Helene is expected to be a larger-than-average hurricane, with potential impacts reaching well beyond the center of the storm, particularly to the east. NHC forecasters note that the storm’s size may increase the range of storm surge, wind, and rainfall damages.
Deputy Director of the NHC, Jamie Rhome, highlighted that Helene will be distinctive due to its extensive size and rapid intensification. Rhome noted that many people mistakenly gauge storm risk based on its current appearance rather than its intensity upon landfall.
The possibility of a life-threatening storm surge remains a significant concern. Water levels could rise to between 10 and 15 feet above normal at high tide, specifically in areas between the Ochlockonee River and Chassahowitzka in Florida’s Big Bend region. Rainfall from Helene may also lead to “considerable” flash and urban flooding across the Southeast, with expected accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, and potential isolated totals reaching 12 inches, posing a risk for significant river flooding.
As Helene progresses towards Florida, residents are bracing for its impact, with state and local officials issuing mandatory evacuations and emergency declarations. The storm’s effects are not confined to Florida; tropical-storm-force winds could trigger power outages throughout the Southeast as it advances inland. On Tuesday, President Biden authorized federal assistance for Georgia, while Governor Brian Kemp also declared a state of emergency.
Helene’s expansive storm system is expected to carry rain and wind far inland, possibly affecting regions as far as Atlanta, upstate South Carolina, and even western North Carolina.