A tropical surge of humidity and an evolving hurricane forecast have coastal communities watching Erin as it powers toward the Atlantic. While Erin remains well offshore for now, the storm’s rapid intensification and path mean swells, rip currents, and beach advisories could affect southern New England later in the week.
Erin’s trajectory and strength
– Erin has intensified dramatically in the overnight hours, climbing from a Category 2 hurricane to a Category 5 overnight. It continues moving west-northwest at about 60 mph, staying just north of the British Virgin Islands and expected to stay north of Puerto Rico.
– The forecast suggests Erin will maintain its major strength as it moves toward Bermuda, where it’s anticipated to weaken to at least Category 2 as it encounters shear. From there, it’s expected to drift northeast and grow rougher seas along the approach to the mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S. coast.
– By the time Erin nears Bermuda and then heads farther northeast, northernly turns and increased sea activity are likely to contribute to higher surf and stronger rip currents along exposed beaches.
What this means for southern New England
– Beaches along south-facing shores could see rough seas and dangerous rip currents from Thursday into Friday, though exact impacts depend on Erin’s exact track and the angle of approach.
– The bigger story in the near term is a hot, humid day today, followed by a notable cooldown and drier air arriving by early next week.
Today’s forecast and short-term notes
– In Boston and surrounding areas, expect a dry day overall with a mix of sun and a few showers or storms skirting to the west and moving southeast. Daytime highs will hover in the upper 70s to around 80, with easterly to southeasterly winds around 15-20 mph.
– Dew points are in the 50s, making for comfortable humidity today, but this will rise quickly as we head into Sunday, making it feel hotter.
– Tonight looks mild, with overnight temps in the 60s and some cloud cover. A chance of thunderstorm activity exists in the late afternoon to early evening tomorrow, particularly between 5 p.m. and 11 p.m., with the potential for gusty winds, small hail, and heavy downpours if storms form.
Tomorrow through midweek outlook
– Tomorrow is expected to be hot and humid, with highs likely in the upper 80s to low 90s. Humidity will push the heat index higher, making it feel hotter than the air temperature.
– A cold front will sag southward tomorrow night, bringing a wind shift to the north and clearing some of the humidity. That front will usher in much drier air for the end of the weekend and into early next week.
– Rain chances drop after tonight, but there could be a few showers or a brief storm along this front, with more chances of scattered showers by Wednesday and into Thursday as a separate tropical moisture plume approaches from the south.
Longer-range and warmth-to-dry transition
– Look for a cooling and drying trend Monday through Thursday as a drier airmass builds in. Daytime highs are expected to stay mostly in the 70s with nights feeling comfortable.
– There is a small chance of a few scattered showers on Wednesday into Thursday as a front-to-southwest breeze interacts with lingering moisture, but widespread storms aren’t anticipated.
– By late week, signs point to continued dry, cooler conditions, offering a welcome break from the recent heat and humidity for many.
What to watch and safety tips
– If you’re headed to the beaches, monitor surf forecasts and local advisories for rip currents and surf conditions. Heed any lifeguard warnings and avoid swimming near rough seas.
– Be mindful of sudden weather changes; a fast-moving front or storms can bring gusty winds and brief downpours.
– Stay tuned for updates on Erin’s track, especially if you’re along the East Coast or planning coastal travel.
Summary and outlook
– Erin is rapidly intensifying and remains a significant weather system worth watching for potential rough seas and rip currents along the southern New England coast later in the week.
– In the meantime, the region should experience a dry, pleasant day today, followed by a hot, humid Sunday before a push of drier air arrives early next week.
– If you’re planning outdoor activities, plan for heat on Sunday and cooler, more comfortable conditions starting Monday, with only a slim chance of rain in the midweek window.
Additional comments
– Keeping an eye on official updates will be important, as small shifts in Erin’s track can alter beach and coastal conditions across southern New England.
– A hopeful note: cooler and drier air in the days after the front will likely bring a welcome reprieve from the heat, with more comfortable afternoons and evenings ahead.