INDIANAPOLIS — Game 4 of the 2025 NBA Finals is critical, particularly for the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder. With the Pacers currently leading the series 2-1, they have a significant advantage; historically, teams in this position go on to secure the series 80% of the time. Winning Game 4 further boosts these odds, elevating to an impressive 97% likelihood of winning the finals.
The Thunder, however, are eyeing the chance to equalize the series at 2-2, a scenario that not only revitalizes their hopes but would also shift momentum back in their favor as they would have home-court advantage again in what would become a best-of-three series. Oklahoma City is determined to replicate the spark they found earlier in these playoffs while down 2-1 against the Denver Nuggets, ultimately winning that series.
Both teams are aware of the intensity required for such a pivotal game. Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton stressed the importance of maintaining composure and focus, indicating that there’s still much work left to do.
Several key factors are expected to play a significant role in Game 4’s outcome:
1. **Clutch Performance**: The Thunder struggle with closing close games, having the lowest number of clutch game experiences in the NBA. On the flip side, the Pacers shine in pressure moments, reflected in their postseason success with a 9-1 record in clutch games compared to OKC’s 5-4.
2. **Bench Contributions**: The performance of bench players has been a game-changer. The Pacers’ reserves have outscored the Thunder’s bench in most of the series so far, proving crucial in their success. Indiana’s players like Bennedict Mathurin and T.J. McConnell have stepped up impressively, while the Thunder’s support has fluctuated.
3. **Possessions over Three-Pointers**: There’s been a noticeable shift in prioritizing possessions over simply attempting three-point shots. Both teams need to focus on maximizing scoring opportunities while maintaining defensive integrity, an often influencer in playoff matchups.
4. **Fatigue or Adrenaline?**: This series is testing the endurance of both teams, having already played a high number of games in a compact timeframe. Managing energy and stamina could be decisive as they face off in quick succession.
The excitement surrounding Game 4 is palpable, with both teams aware that they are just a few wins away from a championship. As Toronto Raptors player Gilgeous-Alexander put it, the Finals represent the culmination of a season’s worth of hard work, urging his team to push through fatigue for a chance at glory.
Expect a thrilling showdown at Gainbridge Fieldhouse as both teams battle for a critical win in what is shaping up to be a memorable finals series.