Goldman Sachs suggests that if Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, her economic policies will likely remain similar to those under President Biden. Following Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he would withdraw from the race amid increasing pressure after a poor debate performance against former President Donald Trump, he endorsed Harris. Harris has expressed her intention to continue her candidacy and has garnered endorsements from several prominent figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
Goldman analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, stated that they do not expect any significant changes to the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda with Harris as the nominee. The odds of Democrats winning the White House slightly increased but remain just under 40%.
The firm emphasized that tax policy will be a critical focus next year, particularly as the personal income tax provisions from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act are set to expire at the end of 2025. This means the next winner of the election will determine the future of these tax cuts and any new tax policies.
Goldman provided some forecasts regarding fiscal policy if Biden were to win, including a potential tax increase to 39.6% for those earning $400,000 or more, an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, and a rise in the Social Security and Medicare tax rate on high incomes to 5%.
Should Harris secure the nomination, speculation suggests candidates for the vice presidential position could include governors and senators from various states, such as Shapiro, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, or Arizona’s Mark Kelly.