Kamala Harris’ economic strategies are expected to remain largely unchanged if she secures the Democratic presidential nomination, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
In a recent Coinbase poll, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris appear to be tied in their appeal to cryptocurrency voters.
Amid growing pressure following a less-than-stellar debate performance against Trump, President Biden announced his decision to withdraw from the race for the Democratic nomination. Shortly after, he endorsed Vice President Harris, who confirmed her intent to continue her campaign. She has since received key endorsements from influential figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. However, the transition in leadership is not expected to significantly alter policy.
Goldman Sachs analysts, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, stated in a note that they do not foresee substantial changes in the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda should Harris become the nominee.
The potential shift from Biden to Harris marginally increases the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidency, now estimated to be just under 40%, as per Goldman’s analysis.
Previously, Goldman researchers indicated that upcoming tax policies will become a primary focus, particularly due to the expiration of the personal income tax provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act at the end of 2025. This situation means that the next president will play a crucial role in deciding whether to extend the cuts or implement new tax measures.
Here are some projections from Goldman regarding fiscal policy if Biden were to secure victory:
– 39.6%: Proposed tax rate for individuals earning $400,000 or more, an increase from the current 35%/37%.
– 28%: Suggested corporate tax rate under Biden, up from the current 21%. However, Goldman expresses doubt that Congress would approve this, envisioning a more likely outcome of 25% (in contrast, Trump plans to reduce it to 20%).
– 5%: Biden’s proposed increase in the Social Security and Medicare tax rate for incomes above $400,000, up from 3.8%.
In the event that Harris becomes the nominee, prediction markets suggest the most likely candidates for the vice presidential role include Governors Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.