Goldman Sachs suggests that Kamala Harris’ economic policies would not differ significantly from those of President Biden if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. This speculation follows Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he is withdrawing from the race amid mounting pressure after a shaky debate performance against Republican Donald Trump.
Biden endorsed Vice President Harris, who affirmed her intention to continue her candidacy. She has already garnered significant endorsements, including from California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. However, analysts at Goldman Sachs predict minimal changes in fiscal and trade policy should Harris become the nominee.
Goldman analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, noted that the chances of Democrats winning the White House have increased slightly but remain just under 40%. They previously highlighted that taxes will likely become a focal point in fiscal discussions next year, especially with the impending expiration of the personal income tax provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act at the end of 2025. The election winner will play a crucial role in determining whether tax cuts are extended or new taxes are implemented.
Their analysis included forthcoming fiscal policy projections under a potential Biden victory. The projections included a 39.6% tax rate for individuals earning $400,000 or more, an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, and a rise in the tax rate for Social Security and Medicare on high incomes to 5%.
If Harris secures the nomination, prediction markets suggest that governors like Shapiro, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Andy Beshear of Kentucky, or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly are leading candidates for the vice presidential role.