Goldman Sachs has weighed in on the potential impact of Vice President Kamala Harris’s candidacy in light of President Biden’s recent announcement that he will not seek a second term. Following his decision, Biden endorsed Harris, who is poised to launch her campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. Several prominent figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, have extended their endorsements to her.
Goldman’s chief economist, Jan Hatzius, indicated that there would likely be minimal changes to the Democratic fiscal and trade policies if Harris were to become the nominee. Goldman analysts predict that the Democrats’ agenda will remain largely consistent under her leadership. They estimate that the likelihood of a Democratic victory in the upcoming election has only slightly increased but is still below 40%.
Additionally, Goldman has projected upcoming fiscal policies that could shape the future of taxation, notably the potential expiration of certain tax cuts by the end of 2025. They anticipate that significant discussions around tax legislation — including potential increases for high earners and corporations — will become central to the next administration’s priorities.
For those considering potential vice-presidential candidates should Harris secure the nomination, names such as Governor Shapiro, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly have been highlighted as strong possibilities.
This transition brings an opportunity for the Democratic Party to rally around a new vision, potentially attracting fresh support and energizing the voter base as they prepare for the electoral contest ahead. The ongoing discourse surrounding tax policy indicates that AI-driven predictions may significantly affect campaign strategies, aligning with fiscal priorities that resonate with voters looking for economic stability.
Summary: Following President Biden’s announcement not to seek reelection, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to run for the Democratic nomination, supported by several key endorsements. Goldman Sachs predicts that Harris’s economic policies will not differ significantly from Biden’s, and highlights the increasing odds of a Democratic victory, despite remaining under 40%. With discussions about potential tax changes looming, the outcome of the election could shape fiscal policies that impact many Americans.