Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November 5 election, according to esteemed historian Allan Lichtman, known for his accurate predictions of presidential races since 1984. Lichtman made this prediction public in a Thursday morning op-ed video for The New York Times.
Lichtman stated, “The Democrats will hold on to the White House, and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” framing his forecast around his “Keys to the White House” model. This system, which he created in collaboration with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in the early 1980s, assesses the political environment using 13 true-false statements that pertain to the incumbent president’s party.
For Trump to win, Lichtman explained, at least six of these statements must be false. His evaluation of the current political landscape yielded the following insights:
1. Party Mandate: FALSE – The incumbent party holds fewer seats in the House compared to the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: TRUE – There is no major contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. Incumbency: FALSE – The incumbent-party candidate is not the sitting president.
4. Third Party: TRUE – No significant third-party or independent campaigns exist.
5. Short-term Economy: TRUE – The economy is not in recession.
6. Long-term Economy: TRUE – Real per-capita economic growth meets or exceeds the average growth of the previous two terms.
7. Policy Change: TRUE – Major changes in national policy have occurred.
8. Social Unrest: TRUE – There has been no sustained social unrest.
9. Scandal: TRUE – The incumbent administration is free from major scandals.
10. Incumbent Charisma: FALSE – The incumbent-party candidate lacks charisma.
11. Challenger Charisma: TRUE – The challenging-party candidate is not viewed as charismatic.
12. Foreign/Military Failure: This key is subject to change.
13. Foreign/Military Success: Also subject to change.
Lichtman noted that the Biden administration’s involvement in the ongoing conflict in Gaza could impact these foreign policy keys. However, he emphasized that even if both foreign policy statements were deemed false, there would still only be five negative keys, insufficient for Trump to reclaim the presidency.
Distinct from typical analyses that rely heavily on polling and campaign tactics, Lichtman’s model has consistently proven to be reliable. He accurately forecasted Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and correctly predicted Joe Biden’s victory in 2020, although Lichtman’s model had indicated Trump would win the popular vote despite his loss in that aspect.