Kamala Harris’ economic proposals are unlikely to differ significantly if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
In a recent poll from Coinbase, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appear to have similar support among cryptocurrency voters.
On Sunday, President Biden announced that he would not pursue the Democratic nomination any further, following increasing pressure for him to step aside after a challenging debate against Trump. Shortly after his announcement, Biden endorsed Harris, who has confirmed her intention to advance her candidacy. She has garnered support from notable figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. However, experts predict that there won’t be significant changes in policy.
Goldman Sachs analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, stated, “We would not expect the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda to shift meaningfully in the event that Harris is the nominee.”
This political shift has marginally increased the chances of Democratic success in the upcoming presidential election, although they remain just under 40%, according to Goldman.
Previously, Goldman analysts indicated that taxation will likely be a major focus next year as the individual income tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act are set to expire at the end of 2025. The outcome of the election will determine the extent of tax cuts or new taxes that may be implemented.
Goldman’s specific fiscal policy predictions include:
– A proposed tax rate of 39.6% for individuals earning $400,000 or more, which is an increase from the current 35%/37%.
– President Biden’s suggested corporate tax rate of 28%, up from the current 21%. However, analysts are doubtful that Congress would approve such a rate, predicting a more likely outcome of 25%. Trump has proposed a reduction to 20%.
– An increase in the Social Security and Medicare tax rate on incomes over $400,000 from 3.8% to 5%.
If Harris secures the nomination, speculation suggests that the vice presidential slot could go to Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.