Goldman Sachs suggests that if Kamala Harris becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, her economic policies will not significantly deviate from those of President Biden. This analysis comes after President Biden announced he would not seek re-election, particularly following criticism of his debate performance against former President Donald Trump.
In his statement, Biden endorsed Vice President Harris, who has expressed her commitment to running for the presidency. She has already garnered several prominent endorsements, including those from California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy.
Goldman Sachs noted that, regardless of Harris’ nomination, they do not anticipate major changes to the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policies. Analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, stated that the odds of a Democratic victory in the presidential election have slightly increased but remain below 40%.
The firm has also indicated that next year, taxes will take center stage in fiscal discussions, particularly as the personal income tax provisions from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act are set to expire at the end of 2025. The outcome of the election will determine potential changes to these tax measures.
Goldman’s analysis includes specific projections regarding fiscal policy under a potential Biden administration. These include a proposed tax rate increase to 39.6% for individuals earning $400,000 or more, a proposed corporate tax rate rise to 28%, and an increase in the Social Security and Medicare tax rate on higher incomes.
If Harris secures the nomination, speculation is growing regarding her choice for vice president, with several governors and a senator being considered potential candidates for the position.