Harris’ Future Plans: What Goldman Sachs Predicts for Democratic Policies

Kamala Harris’ economic policies are unlikely to change significantly if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee, according to Goldman Sachs.

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In light of growing pressure following a lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump, President Biden announced on Sunday that he would not pursue the Democratic nomination. Shortly thereafter, he endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who has expressed her commitment to continue her candidacy and has garnered support from notable figures such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. Despite this shift, analysts at Goldman Sachs predict minimal changes to policy.

Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius and his team stated in a recent note that they do not anticipate any significant alterations to the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda if Harris becomes the nominee. The probability of the Democrats winning the White House has seen a slight increase but remains just under 40%, according to Goldman.

The firm had previously indicated that tax policies will come into sharper focus next year, particularly with the expiration of the personal income tax provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act scheduled for the end of 2025. This means that the victor of the upcoming election will determine the future of these tax cuts and whether new taxes will be introduced.

Goldman provided several fiscal policy forecasts under a potential Biden victory:

– 39.6%: The proposed tax rate on individuals earning $400,000 or more, an increase from the current 35%/37%.
– 28%: The suggested corporate tax rate from President Biden, raised from 21%. Goldman expresses skepticism that Congress would agree to this, implying that a 25% rate may be more likely. In comparison, Trump has pledged to lower the corporate tax rate to 20%.
– 5%: Biden’s proposed increase in Social Security and Medicare tax on incomes exceeding $400,000, rising from 3.8%.

If Harris is nominated, prediction markets indicate that the vice presidential spot could likely go to governors Shapiro, Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Andy Beshear from Kentucky, or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

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