Goldman Sachs has indicated that Kamala Harris’ economic policies would not differ significantly from those of President Biden if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. This comes as President Biden announced he would not seek re-election, following pressure for him to step aside after a challenging debate against former President Donald Trump.
Biden subsequently endorsed Vice President Harris, who confirmed her intention to run and secured endorsements from several notable figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. Despite the transition in leadership, analysts at Goldman Sachs have stated that they do not expect a major shift in the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agendas with Harris at the helm.
Goldman Sachs noted that the likelihood of Democrats winning the White House has slightly increased but remains below 40%. The firm highlighted that fiscal policy will likely focus on tax issues in the coming year, particularly with key provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act set to expire at the end of 2025. The outcomes of the election will significantly influence the future of these tax cuts and potential new tax regulations.
The firm has provided several forecasts regarding fiscal policy should Biden win another term, including a proposed tax rate of 39.6% for income over $400,000, an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, and a raised Social Security and Medicare tax rate on higher incomes.
If Harris secures the nomination, speculation arises about her potential vice-presidential pick, with names like Governors Shapiro, Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Andy Beshear from Kentucky, and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly being considered as frontrunners.