Kamala Harris’ economic agenda is expected to remain largely unchanged if she secures the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a report from Goldman Sachs.
Recent polling data from Coinbase indicates that Harris and former President Donald Trump are equally favored among cryptocurrency voters. This comes in the wake of President Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he would not seek re-election, following intense pressure to step down after a less-than-stellar debate against Trump.
Shortly after his announcement, Biden endorsed Vice President Harris, who expressed her intention to continue her campaign. She soon garnered support from several prominent figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy. Despite the changes in leadership, experts predict minimal shifts in policy direction.
Goldman analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, asserted that they do not anticipate significant alterations to the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda under a Harris nomination. They estimated that this change could marginally improve the Democrats’ chances of winning the White House, raising the probability to just under 40%.
Research from Goldman Sachs also suggested that taxes will take center stage in 2024, especially with the impending expiration of the personal income tax provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act by the end of 2025. The outcome of the upcoming election will determine the fate of these tax cuts and whether new tax measures will be introduced.
The firm provided several fiscal forecasts tied to a potential Biden victory:
– A proposed tax rate of 39.6% for individuals earning over $400,000, an increase from the current rate of 35%-37%.
– A suggested corporate tax rate of 28%, an increase from 21%. However, Goldman expressed doubt that Congress would agree to this, estimating that a 25% rate is more realistic. In contrast, Trump has pledged to lower the corporate tax rate to 20%.
– A proposal for a Social Security and Medicare tax rate of 5% on incomes over $400,000, up from the current 3.8%.
If Harris becomes the nominee, the prediction markets indicate that potential candidates for her vice presidential pick include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, or Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.