In a recent analysis, Goldman Sachs suggested that Kamala Harris’ economic policies would not significantly differ from those of President Biden if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. This comes in light of Biden’s announcement to withdraw from the race amid increasing pressure following a lackluster debate performance against former President Donald Trump.
After Biden’s statement, he endorsed Harris, who expressed her intention to pursue the candidacy and gained support from prominent figures, including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. However, Goldman Sachs anticipates minimal change in policy direction.
Goldman analysts, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, noted that they do not foresee a substantial shift in the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policy agenda with Harris at the helm. While the prospects of a Democratic victory in the White House increased slightly with this transition, the likelihood remains just under 40%.
As the expiration of key personal income tax provisions is set for the end of 2025, fiscal policies, particularly concerning taxes, will be a central focus in the upcoming election. Goldman Sachs highlighted specific tax rate considerations under a potential Biden administration: a 39.6% tax rate for individuals earning over $400,000, an increased corporate tax rate of 28%, and a proposed 5% tax on Social Security and Medicare for high earners.
Should Harris secure the nomination, various candidates are being considered for the vice presidential role, with potential selections including Pennsylvania’s Governor Shapiro and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, among others.