Goldman Sachs predicts that Kamala Harris’ economic policies are unlikely to differ significantly from those of President Biden if she becomes the Democratic presidential nominee. Following Biden’s announcement that he would not pursue the nomination amid rising pressures after a weak debate performance against Donald Trump, he endorsed Harris, who expressed her intent to continue her campaign. She has also received endorsements from prominent figures such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy.
Goldman analysts noted that they do not anticipate any major shifts in the Democrats’ fiscal and trade policies should Harris win the nomination. However, the speculative move to replace Biden has slightly increased the chances of Democratic success in the presidential election, estimated to be just below 40%.
The firm highlighted that tax policy will be a significant focus in the coming year, particularly regarding the expiring provisions of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act at the end of 2025. Key forecasts included potential tax rates, such as a proposed increase to 39.6% for individuals earning over $400,000, an increase in the corporate tax rate to 28%, and a rise in the Social Security and Medicare tax for high earners from 3.8% to 5%.
If Harris secures the nomination, predictions suggest potential candidates for the vice presidency could include Shapiro, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper, Kentucky’s Andy Beshear, or Arizona senator Mark Kelly.