The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a system in the Gulf of Mexico that may strengthen into a tropical storm in the coming days.
In an advisory released early Monday, the center identified this system as Invest 97L, which is generating showers and thunderstorms that are beginning to show organization with a broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. If it develops into a storm, it will be named Helene.
The NHC indicated that conditions seem favorable for further development of the system, with a tropical depression or storm likely forming in the next few days as it moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are anticipated over parts of Central America in the next several days. The NHC urged those in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba to closely monitor the system’s progress.
The system is expected to continue moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, prompting the NHC to advise that those along the northeastern Gulf Coast should stay alert.
Additionally, the NHC is tracking another potential storm in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave located between western Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression may form later this week as the system moves west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The likelihood of formation is estimated at 70 percent over the next seven days.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm John was situated about 130 miles south of Punta Maldonado, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph early Monday. This prompted the Mexican government to issue a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco.
John is moving to the north-northeast at approximately 3 mph, and a slow north-northeast or northeast movement is expected for the next couple of days. The storm is predicted to approach the southern coast of Mexico shortly, with landfall anticipated on Tuesday or Wednesday. The NHC expects John to strengthen, potentially reaching hurricane status before landfall.
Rainfall forecasts predict between 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 15 inches in coastal Chiapas. In areas near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, rainfall amounts may total between 10 and 20 inches, with isolated amounts near 30 inches expected through Thursday.
The NHC warned that this heavy rainfall could lead to significant and potentially life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly along the coast.