The Gulf Coast is preparing for the possible impact of a significant hurricane, as a system expected to become Tropical Storm Helene is developing in the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance southwest of the Cayman Islands as Potential Tropical Cyclone #9. Although it hasn’t formally formed yet, this designation enables forecasters to provide official tracking and issue warnings.
As of Monday afternoon, the storm is not well organized, but forecasters anticipate that it will align vertically and strengthen on Tuesday, likely becoming Tropical Storm Helene. Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches are already in effect for parts of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, urging travelers in areas like Cancun, Playa del Carmen, and Cozumel to reconsider their plans.
Helene is expected to head toward the eastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, moving over record-warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico which could significantly boost its strength. Brian McNoldy, a senior research associate at the University of Miami, noted that heat content in the Gulf is at an all-time high, contributing to the storm’s potential intensification.
Current sea surface temperatures in Helene’s path are around 89 degrees Fahrenheit, which is 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above the norm, and these temperatures have been amplified by climate change. The North Atlantic has also been experiencing record warm temperatures this year.
Helene is projected to move directly over the Loop Current, a region of notably warm water, which could further enhance its intensity alongside the existing favorable atmospheric conditions. The system is expected to rapidly intensify, potentially meeting the criteria for rapid intensification by gaining at least 35 mph in wind speed within 24 hours.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Helene could strengthen to a powerful Category 2 storm, with winds reaching 110 mph at landfall by Thursday. There are concerns that Helene may make landfall along the west coast of Florida, with potential impacts ranging from Destin to Tampa.
Residents in the area are advised not to rely solely on the forecast’s centerline, as Helene is likely to have far-reaching effects. Communities from the Florida Keys to the Tampa area could face significant storm surge flooding, regardless of Helene’s exact path.
Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 counties as the storm approaches. The Gulf Coast is particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding due to its shallow waters and coastal geography. As the system develops and draws closer to the U.S., additional storm surge and hurricane watches are expected to be issued for much of Florida’s coastline.