A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining.
The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. Initially approved for use in treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 options like Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
With the growing demand, leading pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient supplies of GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a drop in the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without the condition rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated that these trends signify a growing recognition of the effectiveness of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a notable change in public health. However, the increase in prescriptions for non-diabetic patients raises concerns regarding ongoing access for those with diabetes.
The study’s data originated from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not be completely representative of the national population. In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged, noted for their ability to suppress appetite and facilitate significant weight loss of up to 26%.
Record sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally, yet the demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescribed treatments. In response, both companies have committed substantial investments to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—by 2035.