A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a worrying trend: the proportion of patients without diabetes who are prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021, allowing Wegovy to be prescribed for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been facing challenges in meeting the soaring demand for GLP-1 compounds, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the number of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which might not represent the entire national picture.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have soared in popularity primarily due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic increase in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the rising demand has complicated the process for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have poured billions into enhancing their production capacities.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global market for GLP-1 drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with the number of users in the U.S. expected to rise to approximately 31.5 million by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.