A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a troubling trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications, with an increasing number of individuals without diabetes receiving these drugs, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining.
Researchers found that from 2019 to 2023, the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70%. Concurrently, the share of GLP-1 prescriptions for non-diabetic patients rose from 10% to 25%. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications, which are essential for diabetes management.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, also received FDA approval in 2021 for weight loss treatments, leading to increased production demands. Manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the growing demand for medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that while the increasing use of GLP-1 medications for obesity reflects a significant public health trend, it highlights the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients have ongoing access to these vital treatments.
As GLP-1 drugs become more popular for their appetite-suppressing effects, users can reportedly lose up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the unprecedented demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in ramping up production.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected increase in adoption among approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for around 9% of the population.