The Minnesota Golden Gophers are aiming to bounce back from a 31-14 defeat to the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday, during which they surrendered 272 rushing yards. This poses a challenge for head coach P.J. Fleck’s squad as they prepare to face a Michigan Wolverines offense known for its running game this Saturday.
The iconic Little Brown Jug will be at stake when the Gophers (2-2, 0-1) take on the No. 12 ranked Wolverines (3-1, 1-0) at Michigan Stadium.
This season, the Wolverines have faced challenges with many key players and coaching staff missing compared to last year, making them solid yet not as formidable as they were over the past three seasons. They are under new leadership from former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore, who took the reins following Jim Harbaugh’s departure to coach the Los Angeles Chargers.
In their last outing, the Wolverines clinched a critical victory against the USC Trojans, winning 27-24 in their Big Ten opener. This win was vital to avoid a second loss early in the season and kept their playoff hopes alive.
The Gophers face an uphill battle, especially considering Michigan’s impressive 30-1 conference record since the start of the 2021 season, their only defeat coming against rival Michigan State. In contrast, Minnesota’s performance over the same period has been inconsistent, with a 14-14 record and a troubling 3-8 mark since last season.
For the Gophers to emerge victorious, they must contain the Michigan rushing attack. Unfortunately, they have struggled in this area, allowing over 200 rushing yards in their last four conference games, with opponents averaging 276 yards and 6.5 yards per carry. The Gophers lost each of those matchups by at least two touchdowns.
Assuming Alex Orji leads the quarterback position throughout the game, Michigan’s passing threat may be limited. He managed only 37 yards in the air against USC last weekend. Although backup Davis Warren possesses a better passing record with a 66.7% completion rate for 444 yards this season, his performance has been marred by two touchdowns and six interceptions.
The Gophers’ recent loss to Iowa bears some resemblance to what they face against Michigan. While they initially managed to slow down Iowa’s running game, undisciplined defense in the second half allowed a breakthrough from Kaleb Johnson.
One point in the Gophers’ favor is that Michigan’s defense, while still formidable, has not yet reached the heights of previous years. Currently, the Wolverines are allowing 20.8 points and 323 yards per game, with opponents averaging 246.5 passing yards against them.
This statistic is somewhat skewed by tougher opponents like Texas and USC, as Fresno State and Arkansas State also registered significant passing yards in their losses to Michigan. However, Michigan’s run defense has been a strong point this season, allowing only 3.1 yards per carry and holding three of four opponents under 100 rushing yards in a game, with USC averaging 4.6 yards last weekend.
Considering these factors, Saturday’s prediction leans toward the Michigan Wolverines for victory.
The decision hinges on the Gophers’ ongoing issues with stopping conference-level rushing attacks and the effectiveness of Michigan’s own ground game, led by tailbacks Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards.
While the Gophers offense may see some success, their passing attack may not be strong enough to consistently challenge Michigan’s secondary. For a Minnesota victory, Max Brosmer must deliver his best performance of the season.
Final Prediction: Michigan 27 – Minnesota 16