The Minnesota Golden Gophers are aiming to bounce back from a disappointing 31-14 defeat against the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday, during which they surrendered 272 rushing yards. This presents a concerning challenge for head coach P.J. Fleck as they prepare to face a Michigan Wolverines team that is anticipated to rely heavily on its running game this coming Saturday.
The historic Little Brown Jug trophy will be at stake as the Gophers (2-2, 0-1) square off against the No. 12 Michigan Wolverines (3-1, 1-0) at Michigan Stadium.
This season, the Wolverines, who are missing several key players and coaching personnel from previous years, remain solid but are not the powerhouse they have been in recent seasons. They are transitioning under new head coach Sherrone Moore, who stepped up after Jim Harbaugh accepted the head coach position with the Los Angeles Chargers.
Last weekend, Michigan kicked off their Big Ten schedule with a 27-24 victory over the USC Trojans, a crucial win that prevented the possibility of two early-season losses that could jeopardize their playoff aspirations.
Factoring against the Gophers is Michigan’s impressive 30-1 conference record since the start of the 2021 season, with their only loss during this period being to rival Michigan State. In contrast, the Gophers have struggled, posting a 14-14 record in the same timeframe, including a challenging 3-8 showing since the beginning of last season.
To secure a victory, the Gophers must effectively contain Michigan’s rushing attack. However, they have faced difficulties in this regard, having permitted over 200 rushing yards in each of their last four conference games, averaging 276 yards allowed per game and 6.5 yards per carry. Unsurprisingly, Minnesota lost each of these games by at least two touchdowns.
If Alex Orji starts at quarterback for Michigan, the passing game could pose minimal threat; he managed only 37 passing yards against USC last week on 12 attempts. Backup Davis Warren has demonstrated slightly better passing ability with a 66.7% completion rate for 444 yards in three games, but he has also thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, with two scores and six picks.
The situation mirrors last week’s loss to Iowa, where despite initially stifling the opponent’s rushing game, the Gophers’ defense faltered in the second half, allowing ample yardage to running back Kaleb Johnson.
On a positive note for Minnesota, Michigan’s defense has not yet reached the heights seen in previous seasons, giving up an average of 20.8 points and 323 yards per game this year. However, the Wolverines have managed to keep three out of four opponents under 100 rushing yards, showcasing their strength against the run while allowing 3.1 yards per carry.
Given these factors, our prediction for Saturday’s matchup favors the Michigan Wolverines. The Gophers’ struggles to defend against rushing attacks since last season, combined with Michigan’s formidable running game featuring tailbacks Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards, suggest a challenging day ahead.
While it’s expected that the game could be competitive and that the Gophers offense may have opportunities, there are doubts about their capacity to consistently penetrate Michigan’s secondary through the air. Quarterback Max Brosmer will need to deliver his best performance of the season for Minnesota to have a chance at victory.
Final Prediction: Michigan 27 – Minnesota 16.