A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study express concerns over the potential for medication shortages due to this shift.
GLP-1 drugs, which simulate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, to include weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient GLP-1 medications, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations assessed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a decrease in new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, stated that the data indicates an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, this development also raises alarms about ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although this data may not reflect national trends accurately. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The rising sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies. However, the soaring demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, anticipating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or around 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.