A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes is on the rise, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This shift raises alarms about potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The FDA later authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million American patients who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. The study found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not represent the national population accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The impressive sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Still, the surge in demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the number of individuals using these medications in the U.S. expected to increase to around 31.5 million, representing about 9% of the population by 2035.