A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these medications due to the shifting patient demographics.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduces appetite. Their use expanded in 2021 when the FDA authorized Wegovy for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the increasing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo noted that this trend indicates a significant recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, Yeo emphasized the concern regarding ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
While GLP-1 drugs are gaining popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and their ability to assist users in losing up to 26% of their body weight, the surging sales have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into leading global pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, this high demand has created challenges for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing substantially to increase production.
Morgan Stanley projects that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations of 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.