A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study express concerns that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curbs appetite. Initially authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved the use of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. Their analysis found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates that healthcare providers are increasingly recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health. However, this trend raises alarms about potential medication shortages and emphasizes the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and have been shown to enable users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to boost production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, predicting that about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.