A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decrease in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval to include Wegovy for weight loss purposes. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the increasing demand for this class of medications, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that this trend reflects a significant shift in public health as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also presents concerns regarding medication availability for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national landscape. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite suppression capabilities, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to rank among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has also led to challenges in filling prescriptions for some patients. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. expected to adopt these treatments by 2035, constituting about 9% of the population.