A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes decline. This shift has raised concerns among researchers regarding potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to imitate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, these drugs gained additional approval in 2021 from the Food and Drug Administration for weight loss, particularly with the treatment Wegovy.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which encompass medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data reflects a significant public health shift, suggesting that more healthcare professionals are recognizing the benefits of these medications in treating obesity. However, this trend also raises issues regarding the availability of medications for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to significant weight loss for users, sometimes up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, yielding them immense market value. Nonetheless, the high demand is complicating the availability of prescriptions for many patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.