A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable shift in the prescription patterns of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while those for people with diabetes decline. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, designed to regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 therapy, specifically for weight loss. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient amounts of GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy escalating demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records from 45 million Americans with at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis indicates that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that the data show increasing awareness among healthcare providers regarding the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, signifying a major public health trend. However, Yeo also highlighted the importance of ensuring access to these treatments for patients with diabetes amid concerns about shortages.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire national demographic. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained fame for their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26%.
The soaring sales of GLP-1 medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, the heightened demand has created difficulties for some patients trying to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing substantial resources to increase production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and anticipate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., representing approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.