A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a concerning trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs, revealing that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed these medications is increasing, while prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline.
The study indicates that GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval in 2021 of Wegovy for weight loss, demand for these medications has surged.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the leading producers of GLP-1 drugs, are struggling to keep up with the increased demand. The analysis conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. It found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked that these findings reflect a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of GLP-1 medications for treating obesity. However, this shift raises alarms about potential shortages and the need to ensure diabetes patients retain access to these important treatments.
The data for the study was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not accurately represent national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss benefits, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The remarkable sales growth of these medications has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the ranks of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nonetheless, the surge in demand has led to challenges in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.