A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by simulating a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially sanctioned for use in treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021. Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced difficulties in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, which include products like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, alongside other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to more than 70% by 2023. Concurrently, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, mentioned, “This data suggests an increased recognition among healthcare providers of these medications’ benefits for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients retain access to these treatments.”
The study’s data was sourced from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not reflect national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in boosting production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could hit $105 billion by 2030, and they estimate that about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.