The proportion of people without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Novo Nordisk, known for its diabetes treatment Ozempic, is also working on an anti-obesity pill that has shown promising results in early trials. Researchers express concern that the growing use of GLP-1 medications among non-diabetic patients could lead to shortages for those who need these treatments for diabetes management.
GLP-1 medications function by imitating a hormone that helps to control blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded approvals in 2021, allowing Wegovy to be prescribed for weight loss.
As demand rises, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are encountering challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They found that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
This study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies demonstrating that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The dramatic increase in sales of these drugs has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them some of the most valuable companies worldwide. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested significantly to increase their drug production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, which represents about 9% of the population.