A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a troubling trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs, showing an increase in prescriptions for individuals without diabetes while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining.
The study highlights concerns over potential shortages of these medications as they become more sought after. GLP-1 drugs, known for mimicking hormones that regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded the approval to include the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight management.
Since this expansion, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep up with the heightened demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023, finding that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, those without diabetes who began using GLP-1 drugs increased from 10% to 25% during the same period.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the findings reflect a significant public health shift as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this shift raises alarms about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that diabetic patients retain access to these vital treatments.
The study’s findings are based on data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be entirely representative on a national scale. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these drugs has helped elevate Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. Nevertheless, this increase in demand has led to challenges for some patients in getting their prescriptions filled, prompting both companies to invest significantly in boosting production capacity.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will soar to $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.