A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions for individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduces appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted this highlights a significant public health shift towards recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, but also underscores the need to ensure that diabetic patients maintain access to them.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in accessing their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. using these medications by 2035, which would represent about 9% of the population.