GLP-1 Prescription Surge: A Double-Edged Sword?

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A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.

GLP-1 medications mimic a hormone involved in blood sugar regulation and appetite suppression. Originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021.

Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.

Co-first author, Yee Hui Yeo, commented that the data indicates more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, this trend also raises concerns about ensuring continued access for patients with diabetes.

The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight loss effects, allowing users to shed up to 26% of their body weight.

Surging sales have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, this heightened demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacity.

Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. adopting these medications by 2035, representing around 9% of the population.

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