A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of prescriptions for GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments, as the pharmaceutical industry struggles to meet rising demand.
GLP-1 medications, originally approved to treat type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Their use expanded when the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough of these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity, which represents a significant public health shift. However, she emphasized the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients amid rising demand.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite and have been shown to enable users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, the high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.