A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing. Researchers caution that this shift could lead to shortages of these important medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates sugar levels and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, causing an increase in demand for these drugs.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently struggling to produce enough of these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the rising demand.
An analysis conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions looked at medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study used data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The significant increase in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, the surge in demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated adoption of around 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.