A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these vital medications.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved to treat type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and curb appetite. In 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management.
As demand for these medications surges, drug manufacturers such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting production targets for popular drugs like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The research team, comprising scientists from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data reflects a significant public health shift as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these drugs in obesity treatment. However, this trend poses risks to the access of diabetes patients who rely on these treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, but the representativeness of this data on a national scale is not guaranteed.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them immensely valuable companies. However, this high demand has also complicated the prescription fulfillment process for some patients. Both companies have invested billions to enhance drug production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S. expected to adopt these medications by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.