A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for patients with diabetes are declining. Researchers warn that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and appetite. Initially, they were approved for treating type 2 diabetes, but in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet surging demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity of ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, although this data may not be representative on a national scale.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users demonstrating the potential to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has complicated access for some patients, leading both companies to invest billions into expanding their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.