A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for diabetic patients decline.
This shift has raised concerns about potential shortages of these medications. GLP-1 drugs, which function by mimicking a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration expanded the approval of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated a significant decrease in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users of GLP-1 drugs without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. However, she expressed concerns about ensuring that patients with diabetes maintain access to these critical treatments.
The study relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
The past few years have seen an increase in popularity for GLP-1 medications due to their appetite suppression effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated 31.5 million people—approximately 9% of the U.S. population—adopting these treatments by 2035.