A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, with the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these medications surged. Companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy this rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the percentage of individuals without type 2 diabetes using these medications grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data indicates a significant shift in the healthcare community’s perspective on these medications for obesity treatment. However, the trend raises alarms about the accessibility of these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. As a result, Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the soaring demand has created challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions, prompting these companies to invest billions in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.