A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine has revealed a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while the number of new prescriptions for diabetic patients is declining. Researchers warn that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded the approval of the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss, further increasing its popularity. Consequently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to produce sufficient supplies of their GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the surging demand.
The study conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the number of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are realizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, this also prompts concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to prioritize access for patients with diabetes.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not be fully representative of the national population. The rising popularity of GLP-1 drugs can be attributed to their appetite-suppressing effects, with studies showing that users can lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The rapid increase in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for many patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions to scale up production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., or approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.