A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the percentage of individuals without diabetes prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are decreasing.
Concerns have been raised by the study’s authors regarding potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were originally authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded approval for the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, acknowledged that the data indicates more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this shift also brings forth worries about ensuring availability for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect national trends comprehensively.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss effects, with users reportedly shedding up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have significantly boosted the valuations of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the immense demand has complicated access for some patients requiring prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will be using these medications.