A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend has raised alarms regarding possible shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and decreases appetite, were originally authorized for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, with the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, the demand for these drugs has surged.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis indicated a decrease in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the fraction of new GLP-1 users without diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this shift shows an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, highlighting a significant public health trend. However, Yeo expressed concerns about ensuring continued access to these drugs for diabetes patients amid potential shortages.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight-loss effects, leading to a potential loss of up to 26% of body weight for users.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry. However, high demand has made it challenging for some patients to obtain their prescriptions, resulting in both companies investing billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.