A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these vital treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, demand for these drugs has surged.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major manufacturers of GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to keep up with the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, highlighted that this shift indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the medications’ benefits for obesity treatment. However, this trend also poses a risk to patients with diabetes, who may face difficulties in accessing necessary medications.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although this data may not be fully representative of the entire nation.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have elevated both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top tier of pharmaceutical companies globally, though the high demand has also led to prescription fulfillment challenges for some patients. To address this, both companies are investing significantly to boost production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and predict that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., about 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.