A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, coinciding with a decline in new prescriptions for those with diabetes. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these crucial medications.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially authorized for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss with the approval of Wegovy.
Both major manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 treatments, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented that the data indicates a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also highlighted concerns regarding potential medication shortages and ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study used data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not accurately represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. As a result, sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading global pharmaceutical companies. Yet, the surge in demand has made it increasingly difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption by approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., which would be about 9% of the population, by 2035.