A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers have raised concerns that this trend could lead to shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were initially approved for use in treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss.
Since the approval of Wegovy, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who saw a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% during the period from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for ensuring that diabetes patients can still access these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which might not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, helping users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The remarkable sales of these medications have turned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the significant demand has also made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts forecast that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.