A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine highlights a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those with diabetes decline. Researchers have raised concerns that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which include brands like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes management. However, since the FDA approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, escalating demand has put pressure on pharmaceutical companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to increase their production.
The study, conducted by researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes has risen from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data suggests an increasing recognition of the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, indicating a significant shift in public health. However, the shift underscores worries about access for diabetes patients who rely on these treatments.
While the study’s data was sourced from the healthcare software company TriNetX, it may not be fully representative of the national landscape. The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications have led to skyrocketing sales, transforming Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into leading pharmaceutical firms. Nevertheless, high demand has resulted in challenges for patients trying to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in production increases.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for roughly 9% of the population.