A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of non-diabetic individuals prescribed GLP-1 medications, alongside a decline in new prescriptions for diabetic patients.
The study highlights concerns over possible shortages of GLP-1 treatments due to this shift. These drugs mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite, initially gaining approval for type 2 diabetes management. However, following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight management in 2021, the demand for these drugs surged.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet the increased demand. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans visiting healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023, while new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted the implications of this trend, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the national population accurately. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing properties of GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
This surge in demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top of the pharmaceutical industry in terms of value. However, the soaring sales have led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.